Ukraine is at around the same point that Vietnam and Iraq were two years in. Public opinion has gone from overwhelming support to split. Votes have gone from 420-0 against to something like what we saw in this bill. People sense where the wind is blowing but they don't want to get blamed for not doing enough.
In another two years public opinion will be net against. Congressional votes will start to go against aid in congress. The executive will be proposing various solutions (Vietnamization, Troop Surge, etc) to try and buy some time, especially if there is an election coming up.
It will end in some kind of frozen conflict, the exact borders of which who knows. Ukraine will be completely drained demographically and financially. It will never recover. Everyone will just kind of forget about it.
Great analysis, as always. Thank you for correcting the record on the misinformation about the Speaker's past position on Ukraine aid. Many, including me, support Ukraine's military aid but do not like the feckless, timid, and often schizophrenic manner in which the Biden Administration has handled the whole matter (see point 12 above). It builds distrust and, in its way, contributed to the failure to enact even modest immigration reform proposals, previously - a lack of trust that the Biden administration will live up to their agreements or follow the law.
This is a typically thoughtful and incisive analysis. Thanks for posting it.
Ukraine is at around the same point that Vietnam and Iraq were two years in. Public opinion has gone from overwhelming support to split. Votes have gone from 420-0 against to something like what we saw in this bill. People sense where the wind is blowing but they don't want to get blamed for not doing enough.
In another two years public opinion will be net against. Congressional votes will start to go against aid in congress. The executive will be proposing various solutions (Vietnamization, Troop Surge, etc) to try and buy some time, especially if there is an election coming up.
It will end in some kind of frozen conflict, the exact borders of which who knows. Ukraine will be completely drained demographically and financially. It will never recover. Everyone will just kind of forget about it.
Great analysis, as always. Thank you for correcting the record on the misinformation about the Speaker's past position on Ukraine aid. Many, including me, support Ukraine's military aid but do not like the feckless, timid, and often schizophrenic manner in which the Biden Administration has handled the whole matter (see point 12 above). It builds distrust and, in its way, contributed to the failure to enact even modest immigration reform proposals, previously - a lack of trust that the Biden administration will live up to their agreements or follow the law.