The Phony Suspense

We know exactly how the budget showdown will end

By Mark Strand

Washington, D.C., has its own “inside-the-beltway” press environment featuring organizations like Politico, The Hill, National Journal, Roll Call, and Axios.  There is an overlay of national media organizations like the Washington Post, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, and a few cable television outlets.  There are even a bunch of “must-read” Substack posts.  These news organizations compete with each other for insider scoops and are bribed with insider information, often secret, by political insiders looking for a return favor down the road.

I imagine every major Capital city, at least in democracies, has similar media environments, though I am confident that Washington, D.C., must be the ultimate insider circus. 

There is a big problem, however.  In recent years, Congress hasn’t done much. In fact, there is a severe lack of interesting information coming from the House and the Senate, making the competition that much more desperate and a lot more creative.

These news organizations would have us believe that the year-end budget is a matter of great suspense.  What will Speaker Mike Johnson do?  Will the Freedom Caucus cause a government shutdown?  What does Senate Leader Chuck Schumer have to say about this or that rumor? And blah, blah, blah.

Congress will pass a short-term continuing resolution late on the night of September 26 or during the following day and then go home until after the election.

Here is precisely what will happen: after several closed-door but entirely leaked Republican Conference meetings, the House will vote on a short-term continuing resolution (CR) that expires in December.  It will include the SAVE Act as an amendment. 

The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act (SAVE Act), introduced by Rep. Chip Roy of Texas, requires voters to provide documentary proof of citizenship at the time of registration.

The SAVE Act is, in this Congress, a messaging bill designed to highlight one of the campaign's top issues.  The Senate and the President will denounce this egregious attack on democracy (though passing legislation is kind of the idea of democratic government) and announce the CR dead on arrival. Schumer will then ask the Senate to pass a clean CR at the current year’s funding levels, which will pass with some Republican support.  The legislation will return to the House. After numerous political threats to the Speaker, including the Freedom Caucus TP’ing his office, on September 27, the House will pass the Senate legislation on the Suspension Calendar with nearly 300 votes.  Then everyone will go home to campaign.

There, now you can relax and spend your remaining brain cells on more lofty pursuits like will Shohei Ohtani be the first 50/50 player (50 home runs and 50 stolen bases)?  Will Aaron Judge hit 60 home runs again?  Does it matter if Donald Trump hates Taylor Swift (in Junior High School, a pronouncement of hatred probably means he has a crush on her)?  Hey, wait, did someone say a woman astronaut completed the highest altitude space walk in history (oh wait, Elon Musk was involved; can’t cover that)? 

There really is nothing else to be done with the spending bill, but there are a couple of interesting nuances.  First, no serious legislator (and you need to include that modifier because there are a lot of unserious legislators) wants a government shutdown right before the election.  It will blow up on the Republican Party, not on its merits, but because since 2016, when the Hillary Clinton campaign blew the election, the news media became the de facto press arm of the Democratic Party.  They will report that it is the Republican’s fault. 

Secondly, there is no other choice. Nothing else is ready. No one has negotiated an agreement on any of the 12 appropriation bills, so an Omnibus Appropriation bill is not even possible.

Now, you may be asking yourself, why are the Republicans even offering the SAVE Act?  Because it is good politics.  “Wait just a dad gum minute, Strand. Aren’t you the guy who criticizes the Freedom Caucus for gumming up the legislative process?”  Why yes, I am glad you asked. I am against gumming up the legislative process when nothing is to be gained.  In this case, so long as everyone knows the right moment to fold their cards, the SAVE Act is a very effective messaging bill.

Almost all surveys show that the crisis at our border is one of the top three issues facing voters.  Another top issue is the integrity of our elections.  Democrats like to talk about “saving democracy,” but it would be a big mistake not to recognize that many Republicans also feel that democracy is under threat.

The SAVE Act requires voters to provide documentary proof of citizenship at the time of registration. Good golly, Miss Molly, who could be against that?  It turns out most of the Democratic Party in Congress is against it.

They argue that it is already illegal for a non-citizen to register to vote. It is.  But non-citizens do sometimes register to vote. This week alone, Oregon announced that they had accidentally registered over 300 non-citizens to vote.  Last month, Gov. Glen Youngkin of Virginia kicked over 6000 non-citizens off of Virginia’s voter rolls.

Democrats argue that these are tiny numbers compared to the more than 150 million people expected to vote in November, but let me remind you that in the 2000 presidential election, George Bush won because he defeated Al Gore by 537 votes in Florida. So, yeah, it kind of matters. So, yeah, it kind of matters. And as a matter of election integrity, all illegal registrations matter.

Another argument is that some voters do not have any documentation of their citizenship status.  Of course, these are the same people who think there are Americans who can’t find the Department of Motor Vehicles or use the Internet.  These are primarily white liberals with a misguided noblesse oblige whose arguments have a profoundly racist bent, even if they are incapable of seeing it in the mirror.  

So, the SAVE Act is not unimportant.  It is politically salient (we political types like to use that word instead of interesting). It fits with the Republican campaign message regarding immigration and is likely supported by a healthy majority of Americans. If the Democrats want to talk about allowing non-citizens to vote for the remainder of September, they won’t find any resistance from Republicans.

Messaging bills are a fact of life.  Schumer is talking about bringing up a bill that would require insurance companies to pay for IVF treatments.  After all, Trump is for it.  But this bill has no chance of becoming law without any hearings and this late in the year. However, Democrats will use it in their campaign ads. It’s the same thing.  The target of the messaging bill is made to feel uncomfortable every time it comes up. 

The key is for Republicans, in this case, to know when to let go.  We all know the SAVE Act will not pass this month – yes, all of us. So, when do you let go, declare victory, vote against the final passage (because your Speaker will kindly find enough Democratic votes to allow you to claim you never caved in), and go home to campaign?  On September 27.  Maybe the night before, depending on the Friday flight schedules.

Sorry to kill the suspense. But there are better things to worry about – like whether your favorite team is playing baseball in October.