Johnson’s Strategy Will Finally Pass Aid to Ukraine and Israel

Final Passage is Expected on Saturday, but there will be many efforts to sabotage Speaker Johnson's efforts

By Mark Strand

“I could make a selfish decision and do something that’s different, but I’m doing here what I believe to be the right thing. … I’m willing to take personal risk for that because we have to do the right thing and history will judge us.” – House Speaker Mike Johnson

Despite the political risk, House Speaker Mike Johnson will get essential military aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan through the House of Representatives by the end of the week. This has been no easy feat, and Johnson will likely face the same motion to vacate the Speaker’s Chair that Kevin McCarthy did in October of last year.

The timing of this legislation was strongly influenced by Iran’s massive attack on Israel this past weekend, knowing Israel needs to replenish its missile defense system.

The legislation will include $61 billion in aid to Ukraine ($50 billion of which will be spent in the United States). As former President Trump suggested, $9 billion will be in the form of forgivable loans to Ukraine.

The legislation’s success will depend on a bipartisan vote in the House Rules Committee, where the three extreme right Members appointed by Kevin McCarthy have already vowed to oppose Johnson. However, if the four Democrats on the Rules Committee join the six Johnson loyalists, the special rule should pass comfortably. This is important because if the rule passes, all that is needed is a simple majority vote. If the rule fails, and Johnson must try to pass the provisions on the suspension calendar, he will need two-thirds of the House, which would be a risky gamble.

The Speaker’s decision to bring up the Senate bill in pieces is wise. While Republican opposition to aiding Ukraine has been building, Democratic opposition to helping Israel has been increasing. There was a risk that if Johnson brought up the Senate bill as a stand-alone option, the combination of dissident Republicans and Democrats could sink the bill. However, there is a significant majority for aid to Ukraine and Israel if voted on by itself. Both parties seem to support assistance to Taiwan. However, by voting on each section separately and combining them at the end, there should be a comfortable majority for military aid to all three countries.

Said Johnson:

“I believe Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin and Iran really are an axis of evil. I think they’re coordinating this. I think that Vladimir Putin would continue to march through Europe if he were allowed. I think he might go to the Balkans next. I think he might have a showdown with Poland or one of our NATO allies. To put it bluntly, I would rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys.

My son is going to begin in the Naval Academy this fall. This is a live-fire exercise for me, as it is for so many American families.”

While certain pundits and internet personalities have criticized Johnson for the delay, it is clear that this vote has existential implications. After this weekend, the Republican majority will be down to one vote (Rep. Mike Gallagher had announced his retirement but put it off until after this vote). That means if Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green offers her motion to vacate, and libertarian curmudgeon Rep. Thomas Massie joins her, Johnson would lose his job if the Democrats voted with them, as they did with Rep. Matt Gaetz against Kevin McCarthy.

Yet, in my view, most Democrats will likely not want to associate with radical populist Greene. Yesterday, Greene endorsed two new bills—one to use “space lasers” against migrants on the southern border and the second to require every member of the House of Representatives to enlist in the Ukrainian army if they vote for Johnson’s proposal. Mentally, Greene is not the most well-adjusted person in Washington. 

Do Democrats really want to be associated with Greene? I think not. If Greene makes her motion to vacate, most Democrats will join with most Republicans to table her motion.

Removing Johnson would also have devastating implications for Republicans before this election. No sane Republican representative would want this job at this time. As former National Football League star Rep. Burgess Owens wrote, “Calling a motion to vacate right now is like sacking your own quarterback in the red zone.”

Many people will continue to hear complaints against Mike Johnson, particularly on Twitter and other social media sites with large foreign audiences. Readers should take these with a grain of salt. Most are motivated by partisan Democrats who are seeking to damage Republicans before the election. In this very polarized world, this is not exactly breaking news. Some will advocate opposing Johnson and trying to get a discharge petition signed. If Johnson fails, the discharge petition is still possible, but it will be at least another month before that can happen. The partisan voices support aid to Ukraine, but they hate Republicans more. Don’t be taken in.

Russian propagandists will also intensify their efforts to support Marjorie Taylor Greene and undermine Johnson with populists in the United States. After all, the key to Russia’s victory in Ukraine is the failure of the House of Representatives to pass the military aid package. The pro-Russian voices on social media should reach a fevered pitch by the time the House votes on Saturday. Understand it for what it is.

A fourth section of this bill will include provisions to attract conservatives, such as a ban on TikTok. A separate bill would provide a strong response to the crisis on the southern border, but it would not be tied to the military aid package. Both are expected to pass.

The bottom line is: this is it. If Ukraine is to get military aid before the front line collapses, this is the legislative vehicle that needs to pass. The Senate will likely approve the House bill quickly, and President Biden has already promised to sign it into law. If you have a voice on social media, now is the time to use it.