By Mark Strand
Americans can be forgiven for not fully understanding how the European Union works. Even the late Henry Kissinger wondered aloud, “Who do I call if I want to call Europe?” So, let’s examine the governance of the European Union and the importance of the elections for the European Parliament.
The headlines Americans have received today regarding the European Parliament elections are misleading. It is not “Far Right Runs Wild.” Indeed, the ruling parties in France and Germany did poorly, with the most extreme right parties succeeding. But the big story was the success of the center-right European Peoples Party and the European Conservatives and Reformists. The question now is what a majority coalition will look like.
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Before we analyze the election’s results, here is a quick summary of the European Union and its government for Americans.
The election for the European Parliament is the second largest democratic election, after India, in the world. It has 373 million eligible voters across 27 countries that elect a parliament of 720 members. Much like the United States (if you compare European countries to our states), each country has its own election rules, so this past weekend’s vote was 27 different elections spread out over three days. As a result, local and national issues, as opposed to broad EU issues, can majorly impact who wins in each country.
The European Union’s government comprises three institutions - the Parliament, the Commission, and the Council. This is an inexact model, but think of the European Parliament as Congress (a legislature with far less power than the US Congress). Think of the European Commission as the Senate before the 17th Amendment passed (Commission members are generally put forward by their national governments - much like Senators appointed by state legislatures pre-1914). Finally, think of the European Council (made up of the leaders of the National governments) as the Executive.
The Parliament is the only directly elected part of the EU governing system. While the Parliament votes by majority rule, the Council generally must vote unanimously to decide significant issues. As a result, the European government model produces outcomes similar to our first government before we adopted the Constitution—the Articles of Confederation, where the individual 13 states maintained much of their power over the post-Revolutionary War American government.
The Parliament is weaker than the US Congress in one very significant way—members of Parliament cannot introduce substantial legislation. Important bills are proposed by the Commission and then sent to Parliament for amendment and approval. While this is a significant role, much of the power that the US Congress has is the result of its constitutional mandate to control all spending, borrowing, and taxation.
Elections for the European Parliament are held every five years. Unlike many national parliaments, the terms are fixed, and Parliament cannot be dissolved with new elections being held.
Starting in 2014, as part of the Parliamentary elections, the EU adopted the Spitzenkandidatprocess, in which each party ran a candidate for President of the European Commission. The Spitzenkandidat does not receive votes directly but represents the party’s choice for Commission President.
[Spitzenkandidat – don’t you love how the Germans just invent words as they need them.]
Thus, a voter who wants the EPP to head the European Commission would vote for the EPP for Parliament. A voter who wants a Socialist to become commission president would support the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) party. It is not all that clear that the voters care more about the Commission Presidency than the members of Parliament they are electing. Jean-Claude Juncker was elected Commission President as the candidate of the EPP after the 2014 election.
However, things went off track in 2019. Manfred Weber of Germany, a strong conservative and devout Catholic, was the EPP candidate. Since his party won, he should have the first opportunity to be elected Commission President. Unfortunately, the Brussels establishment treated this process as optional and elected Ursula von der Leyen, also of the EPP. This was a “bait and switch” with the voters. Manfred Weber kept his job as President of the EPP and continued to hold his seat in the European Parliament.
This year, Ursula von der Leyen ran as the Spitzenkandidat for the EPP. Still, it is only certain that she will be elected Commission president if the EPP can form a coalition to get 361 of the 720 votes in Parliament. French President Emmanual Macron was pushing the idea of Italy’s former Prime Minister Mario Draghi. However, his Renew party lost 23 seats in an abysmal showing that forced him to call snap national elections in France.
In the past few parliaments, the EPP made a coalition with Renew and the Social Democrats to form a governing majority. This grand coalition of the center kept the extremes on the left and the right from gaining much influence in the Parliament. However, with the balance of power shifting to the right, it might be wise for the EPP to seek coalitions with other conservative parties.
The choices are limited.
The media tends to, for hysteria-generating purposes, clump everyone to the right of the EPP as extremists (sometimes they include the EPP as well). The reality is that there is a vast range of differences between different leaders and parties. For instance, Marine Le Pen of the National Rally party (Identity and Democracy) in France is a populist who has played footsie with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the years and has been hostile to the United States. Her biggest issue, however, which played a significant role in the success of the political right in Europe, is the lack of immigration control and the lack of assimilation into the national culture by recent migrants.
![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F833b8398-932c-4dd8-b4ed-e3f381f506b6_851x479.heic)
On the other hand, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is pro-NATO, pro-American, and supportive of Ukraine but also shares concerns about out-of-control immigration and its effect on Italy’s economy and culture. Considering she is from Italy, it should not be surprising that her views on social issues reflect those of the Catholic Church, but just being pro-life in Europe is often enough to get one labeled an extremist by the elites in Brussels. The Economist, hardly a right-wing magazine, had a recent cover story: “Meloni’s Not So Scary Right-Wing Government.”
Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party is part of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). She is in coalition with the EPP in Italy’s national government (former EPP President of the European Parliament Antonio Tajani, is her Foreign Minister), and von der Leyen and Manfred Weber have been wooing her to join their coalition. This has been a red line for Renew and S&L, who, at least before their losses in the election, said they would not be part of a coalition that includes Meloni.
And there are other complications. In Germany, Socialist Chancellor Olaf Scholz saw his party get decimated by the center-right EPP but also lose to the very far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). The AfD is a nationalist party that has dabbled in politics dangerously resembling fascism. Like the other right-wing parties in Europe, its success in the polls is primarily driven by opposition to the surge of immigrants, caused mainly by decisions of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The AfD is pro-Russian and anti-Ukraine, and no one, not even Marine Le Pen of France, wants to be in coalition with them. Under the rules of the Parliament, to form a party, you must have 23 members from at least seven different countries. So, while AfD has 15 members from Germany, they might need help to recruit eight more members from 6 different countries to form a party in the Parliament. Without a party, Members have no say in the agenda, are not guaranteed to speak during debates, and may be left without committee assignments.
Renew and S&D only received about 13% of the total vote in Poland. Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s EPP won 20 seats, but the ECR, mostly made up of President Andrzej Duda’s PiS party, also won 20 seats. Both parties are pro-NATO, pro-American, and pro-Ukraine. Last year, however, the two parties fought a hard election that resulted in Tusk putting together a coalition defeating PiS. From the outside, the two parties look like natural coalition partners. Still, internally, a great deal of hostility remains between the two.
A coalition between EPP (186 seats) and ECR (73 seats) falls 102 votes short of a majority. Macron and his Renew party (79 seats), trying to shore up his conservative credentials, might offer to join a majority coalition. The coalition would then need to recruit 24 members from the 100 non-aligned right-wing members.
Still, expect the European media and establishment to push for the continuation of the EPP, S&D, and Renew coalition. Given their 27-seat loss, they would likely need to make significant concessions, including the reelection of von der Leyen as Commission President, the reelection of Roberta Metsola (an EPP member from Malta) as President of the Parliament, and the acceptance of ECR as a coalition partner.
Numerous deals, possibilities, and combinations will be considered in forming a governing coalition. However, given the poor showing of Socialists in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, it would be foolish for the EPP not to explore a coalition in which they leave the S&D party behind.
Conclusion
The United States has a significant national security and economic interest in the results of the EU elections. Europe is our closest military ally and trading partner. Most EU members are also part of NATO. Together, the US and the EU make up more than 50% of the world’s economy, meaning that if we stick together, we can determine the rules of international trading.
While the cocktail parties among the diplomats might have been more pleasant under the Biden Administration, much has been the same as under the Trump Administration regarding trade. US military spending under Biden has decreased compared to the Trump Administration as a percentage of the economy. President Biden has been highly supportive, though sometimes inept, regarding Ukraine. President Trump might not be as supportive.
The new Parliament must deal with whomever the Americans elect as President. The Transatlantic relationship is exceptionally important to both sides of the Atlantic. The best conduit for members of the European Parliament is the members of the United States Congress. While the diplomats discuss theory and practice suitable protocol, the politicians who face the voters are the ones who can better determine what is realistic and what can get them sent home in a proverbial body bag. From a practical point of view, the relationship between elected members of Parliament and Congress is where the real work will get done.
Sir, Civic Coalition party of PM Tusk is in reality not pro US and only lighty proNATO. They are proGermany and antiUS in fact. Its politics between 2007 and 2014 was to push frendly relations with Russia. Rock Rachon account on Substack will provide much more detailed information about real position of Civic Platforms German,Russia and US politics.
You covered a lot of ground here, but thanks for clarifying better than most US media what happened in the EP elections. Interesting times ahead.